Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 0.008143 0.009190 0.010337 0.011691 0.013247 0.014985 0.017078
2024-10-20 0.006234 0.007584 0.009195 0.011268 0.013883 0.017094 0.021369
2024-10-27 0.005225 0.006674 0.008499 0.010991 0.014335 0.018719 0.024978
2024-11-03 0.004631 0.006153 0.008159 0.011031 0.015094 0.020721 0.029254
2024-11-10 0.004316 0.005938 0.008163 0.011489 0.016421 0.023606 0.035128
2024-11-17 0.003876 0.005488 0.007774 0.011316 0.016784 0.025101 0.039100
2024-11-24 0.003571 0.005192 0.007561 0.011358 0.017443 0.027087 0.044086
2024-12-01 0.003245 0.004827 0.007203 0.011125 0.017621 0.028299 0.047923
2024-12-08 0.003072 0.004675 0.007149 0.011353 0.018558 0.030850 0.054433
2024-12-15 0.002867 0.004453 0.006959 0.011335 0.019064 0.032706 0.059938
2024-12-22 0.002592 0.004095 0.006517 0.010841 0.018678 0.032916 0.062315
2024-12-29 0.002429 0.003907 0.006337 0.010779 0.019051 0.034548 0.067729
2025-01-05 0.002382 0.003913 0.006494 0.011347 0.020688 0.038856 0.079541
2025-01-12 0.002177 0.003634 0.006136 0.010945 0.020438 0.039445 0.083524
2025-01-19 0.002014 0.003415 0.005866 0.010676 0.020412 0.040474 0.088652
2025-01-26 0.001912 0.003295 0.005763 0.010716 0.021007 0.042879 0.097415
2025-02-02 0.001874 0.003287 0.005862 0.011158 0.022491 0.047413 0.112231
2025-02-09 0.001760 0.003130 0.005668 0.010991 0.022648 0.048987 0.119854
2025-02-16 0.001681 0.003032 0.005580 0.011032 0.023263 0.051706 0.131036
2025-02-23 0.001578 0.002882 0.005376 0.010806 0.023246 0.052900 0.138249
2025-03-02 0.001532 0.002838 0.005380 0.011027 0.024287 0.056844 0.154139
2025-03-09 0.001464 0.002746 0.005279 0.011010 0.024759 0.059414 0.166525
2025-03-16 0.001356 0.002567 0.004986 0.010532 0.024059 0.058834 0.169096